November 3, 2018
By Mickey Friedman
I’m guessing most people won’t get this: “by 2100, global sea level rise would be 10 cm lower with global warming of 1.5°C compared with 2°C. The likelihood of an Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer would be once per century with global warming of 1.5°C, compared with at least once per decade with 2°C. Coral reefs would decline by 70-90 percent with global warming of 1.5°C, whereas virtually all (> 99 percent) would be lost with 2°C.”
Which is why we need smart people to take complicated climate science and tell us non-scientists what’s going on. Because what’s going on is terrifying. Which is why I’m going to share some of what we’re learning from the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world’s best climate scientists.
Carol Davenport of the New York Times wrote: “A landmark report from the United Nations’ scientific panel on climate change paints a far more dire picture of the immediate consequences of climate change than previously thought and says that avoiding the damage requires transforming the world economy at a speed and scale that has ‘no documented historic precedent.’”
For us climate dummies, the scientists are saying there is no known time in history when humans have made the kinds of changes to the economy that are now necessary if we are going to avoid the massive disasters that are coming.
Like “rapid and far-reaching” transitions in the way we use land and energy, run our industries, construct and use buildings, transport ourselves and the way we live in cities. We’d have to reduce human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) by about 45 percent around the world from 2010 levels by the year 2030, reaching ‘net zero’ around 2050. And we would have to find ways to reduce the remaining emissions by removing the CO2 from the air. The scientists tell us the problem isn’t with science but human behavior. “Limiting warming to 1.5°C is possible within the laws of chemistry and physics but doing so would require unprecedented changes,” said Jim Skea, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group III
The report, Davenport notes: “describes a world of worsening food shortages and wildfires, and a mass die-off of coral reefs as soon as 2040 — a period well within the lifetime of much of the global population.” All this at significantly lower temperatures than they thought just years ago.
Davenport explains: “if greenhouse gas emissions continue at the current rate, the atmosphere will warm up by as much as 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above preindustrial levels by 2040, inundating coastlines and intensifying droughts and poverty. Previous work had focused on estimating the damage if average temperatures were to rise by a larger number, 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius … The new report, however, shows that many of those effects will come much sooner, at the 2.7-degree mark.”
So it used to be disaster would come when the atmosphere heated up an additional 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. But in the time it took to research and write another report, that figure dropped .9 degrees to 2.7 Fahrenheit.
Chris Mooney and Brady Dennis of the Washington Post put it this way: “The world has just over a decade to get climate change under control … With global emissions showing few signs of slowing and the United States — the world’s second-largest emitter of carbon dioxide — rolling back a suite of Obama-era climate measures, the prospects for meeting the most ambitious goals of the 2015 Paris agreement look increasingly slim.”
So what did President Trump say to 60 Minutes?
“Lesley Stahl: Do you still think that climate change is a hoax?
President Donald Trump: I think something’s happening. Something’s changing and it’ll change back again. I don’t think it’s a hoax, I think there’s probably a difference. But I don’t know that it’s manmade. I will say this. I don’t wanna give trillions and trillions of dollars. I don’t wanna lose millions and millions of jobs. I don’t wanna be put at a disadvantage.
Lesley Stahl: I wish you could go to Greenland, watch these huge chunks of ice just falling into the ocean, raising the sea levels.
President Donald Trump: And you don’t know whether or not that would have happened with or without man. You don’t know.
Lesley Stahl: Well, your scientists, your scientists …
President Donald Trump: We have scientists that disagree with that … I’m not denying climate change. But it could very well go back. You know, we’re talkin’ about over a millions … of years. They say that we had hurricanes that were far worse than what we just had with Michael …”
Let’s call climate change, “Loretta.” And President Trump can sing, “get back Loretta! Get back to where you once belonged.” Sing it with Don The Con as the ice melts and the seas rise: “Get back, get back.”
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“Get Back Loretta” was published first in the October 25, 2018 issue of The Berkshire Record.
For more information:
“Summary for Policymakers of IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C
approved by governments”
October 8, 2018
https://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/pr_181008_P48_spm.shtml
“Global Warming of 1.5 °C”: an IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/
“Major Climate Report Describes a Strong Risk of Crisis as Early as 2040”
Carol Davenport, October 7, 2018, New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-report-2040.html?
“The world has just over a decade to get climate change under control, U.N. scientists say”
“There is no documented historic precedent” for the scale of changes required, the body found.
Chris Mooney, Brady Dennis, October 7, 2018, Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/08/world-has-only-years-get-climate-change-under-control-un-scientists-say/?
“President Trump on Christine Blasey Ford, his relationships with Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un and more”
Leslie Stahl, October 15, 2018, 60 Minutes, CBS
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-interview-60-minutes-full-transcript-lesley-stahl-jamal-khashoggi-james-mattis-brett-kavanaugh-vladimir-putin-2018-10-14/